It's Oscar time

Yes, I know it’s the wrong Oscar, but I love Sesame Street, and it’s my blog, so end of argument (heh). The annual Oscar derby comes to an end this Sunday, February 24^th, when the winners for the 80^th Annual Academy Awards will be announced. In the preceding weeks, there was fear that nominees and presenters might not attend due to the ongoing writers’ strike, but all’s well in Hollywood-land now that a tentative deal has been brokered between the scribes and the studios. The spotlight now turns to the mother of all movie awards, the Oscars; there will be glitz, there will be glamour, and even though it’s an exercise in futility, I will, as usual, try my amateur hand at predicting the Oscars. Let’s see if I can continue my woeful track record of historically inaccurate picks this year. My predictions are in bold, and reiterated in the “Will win/Might win” line immediately following each category’s commentary; “Who I would like to win” is my personal choice, i.e. who I wish would win, and is NOT my prediction (clearing up any confusion from last time).

Precursor awards index:

NYC – New York Film Critics Circle

LAC – Los Angeles Film Critics

SOC – National Society of Film Critics

NBR – National Board of Review

GG – Golden Globes (given by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association)

PGA – Producers Guild of America

DGA – Directors Guild of America

SAG – Screen Actors Guild

WGA – Writers Guild of America (yes, the union that went on strike)

BAFTA – British Academy of Film and Television Arts

Scripter – Sponsored by Friends of the University of Southern California Libraries, and given annually to both the author and screenwriter adjudged to be behind the year’s best film adaptation of a book

Best Picture:

Atonement (7 nominations) – GG, BAFTA

Juno (4 nominations)

Michael Clayton (7 nominations)

No Country for Old Men (8 nominations) – NYC, NBR, PGA, DGA, SAG

There Will Be Blood (8 nominations) – LAC, SOC

NCFOM is the clear frontrunner in a category that some experts would have you think is less straightforward than it actually is; don’t listen to any of them. There will be no vote-split between NCFOM and TWBB (arguably the second favorite), leading to an unlikely victory for Juno, the charming comedy that has won the hearts of audiences and critics alike. The Academy will not go for the over-praised Atonement. Michael Clayton was released too long ago to be a veritable threat; its nomination is already a victory in itself. With the weight of prominent critics and all the major guilds behind it, NCFOM will be strolling to the biggest crown on Oscar night, and a deserving winner it would be too.

Will win: No Country for Old Men

Who I would like to win: Juno

Best Director:

Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood) – LAC, SOC

Joel Coen & Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) – NYC, DGA, BAFTA

Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)

Jason Reitman (Juno)

Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) – GG

The DGA really is the only precursor that one needs to look at in this category. It’s the single most accurate predictor for the Best Director Oscar (and by extension, the Best Picture Oscar too, since the two winners, more often than not, come from the same film). Until the Coens won the Screenplay Oscar 11 years ago for their brilliant Fargo, they had been considered Hollywood outsiders, and in a way, they still are. However, they find themselves in the Oscar spotlight again this year, and their stellar directing work in NCFOM, a film that’s at turns gripping, darkly comic and elegiac, will almost certainly be lauded on Oscar night. It would be a richly-deserved accolade in a distinguished, ongoing career that started with Blood Simple, and which includes Barton Fink (which won the Palme d’Or at Cannes), Raising Arizona (my personal favorite Coen brothers movie), O Brother, Where Art Thou?, and the aforementioned Fargo.

Will win: Joel Coen & Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)

Who I would like to win: Joel Coen & Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)

Best Actor:

George Clooney (Michael Clayton) – NBR

Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) – NYC, LAC, SOC, GG, SAG, BAFTA

Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd) – GG

Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah)

Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)

The prohibitive favorite going into Oscar night will be Daniel Day-Lewis for his powerful portrayal of an unscrupulous oilman in TWBB. Although there have been years in which dark horses prevailed (most notably in 2002 when Adrian Brody won for The Pianist over the favorite, would you believe it, Daniel Day-Lewis for Gangs of New York), this won’t be one of those years. Day-Lewis, a past Oscar-winner for 1989’s My Left Foot, and who has also been nominated for 1993’s In the Name of the Father and the abovementioned GONY, will add the Oscar to the whole stream of accolades he has already received for his role of Daniel Plainview this awards season. However, being a long-time ER fan (14 years long, and counting), you know I always want Clooney to win, despite me not having seen Michael Clayton. Lord of the Rings fans might like to know that Viggo “Aragorn” Mortensen receives his first Oscar nomination this year.

Will definitely win: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)

Who I want to win: George Clooney (Michael Clayton)

Best Actress:

Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)

Julie Christie (Away From Her) – NYC, SOC, NBR, GG, SAG

Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose) – LAC, GG, BAFTA

Laura Linney (The Savages)

Ellen Page (Juno)

Veteran Christie is the favorite for her subtle work as a woman suffering from Alzheimer’s, but I have a feeling French actress Cotillard might just possibly edge her out for the award come Oscar night. In Cotillard’s favor: (1) Christie has already won an Oscar, for 1965’s Darling; (2) Cotillard plays renowned French singer Edith Pfiaf, and she does her own singing (see Sissy Spacek for Coal Miner’s Daughter and Jamie Foxx for Ray); and (3) the last time a major upset occurred in the actress categories, it was French actress Juliette Binoche taking the Supporting Actress honors over the hot favorite, Hollywood legend Lauren Bacall (yup, never underestimate those Gallic charms). Working against Cotillard: only 3 foreign-language performances have ever won the Oscar, and they were all in Italian (Sophia Loren for Two Women, Robert DeNiro for The Godfather: Part II, and Roberto Benigni for Life is Beautiful). Of course, I would be personally thrilled if Ellen Page, so lovable and funny and heartbreaking as the title character in Juno, pulled off the biggest upset of them all and won. One can only hope.

Might win: Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)

Who I would like to win: Ellen Page (Juno)

Best Supporting Actor:

Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford) – SOC, NBR

Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men) – NYC, GG, SAG, BAFTA

Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War)

Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)

Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

Bardem’s chilling portrayal of evil personified is the favorite in this category, and it’s hard to see the Academy voting for anyone else against such a memorable role. British veteran Wilkinson has been nominated previously for 2001’s In The Bedroom, and is a versatile character actor who has appeared in tons of films in which one probably knows his face but doesn’t know his name. For instance, he was the vicious gangland boss who lost his mind in Batman Begins and the goofy moneylender Hugh Fennyman in Shakespeare in Love. Hopefully the Academy doesn’t send Michael Clayton home empty-handed at the end of the night, and this is as good a category to acknowledge the movie as any, on top of giving the veteran actor his due for his body of work.

Will win: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)

Who I would like to win: Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

Best Supporting Actress:

Ruby Dee (American Gangster) – SAG

Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There) – SOC, GG

Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)

Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) – NYC, LAC, NBR

Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) – BAFTA

Arguably the most open of all the major categories. Dee, Ryan and Swinton are probably the slight frontrunners, by consensus. However, Blanchett is a double-nominee this year (though past double-nominees Sigourney Weaver in 1988 and Julianne Moore in 2002 have gone home empty-handed before), she has a flashy role (she reaches across gender to play singer Bob Dylan), and she is well-respected in the industry (she won this category for 2004’s The Aviator). Going by momentum and buzz, Blanchett is probably a long shot, but I think any nominee here has about as much chance of having her name being called out on Oscar night, in a category where, traditionally, most of the surprises occur. Your guess is as good as mine.

Might win (but please don’t put any money on this): Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)

Best Animated Feature:

Persepolis – NYC, LAC

Ratatouille – LAC, NBR, GG, PGA, BAFTA, Annie

Surf’s Up

This is Ratatouille’s to lose (though I’m personally not bowled over by the film), having scooped up the top prize at the Annie’s, the animation industry’s own version of the Oscars. Winning the Golden Globe and the BAFTA only adds icing to the cake, so to speak. The Annie’s record as the perfect predictor of this category was broken last year when Cars, which won the Annie for Best Animated Feature, lost this Oscar to Happy Feet. Don’t expect that losing streak to be repeated this time around, because, well, I don’t really see the Academy giving this award to penguins for the second straight year (if anything, the biggest threat comes from Persepolis). And it is, after all, the Year of the Rat (sorry! Couldn’t resist).

Will win: Ratatouille

Best Original Screenplay:

Brad Bird (Ratatouille)

Diablo Cody (Juno) – NBR, BAFTA, WGA

Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)

Tamara Jenkins (The Savages) – LAC, SOC

Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl) – NBR

First-time screenwriter Cody is the favorite in this category, Juno’s best chance of an Oscar come February 24^th. Her sharp, incisive, poignant script is brimming with equal measures of wit and heart, telling its story simply but eloquently, populated by likeable characters that refuse to succumb to movie clichés and stereotypes, and a quietly moving climax that would have some in the audience reaching for their Kleenex (I admit, I did cry). I love the movie, so I’m biased, but for me, Juno is the only choice in this category. If it inexplicably falls, that loud sound you hear in the background is me throwing my shoe at the TV screen.

Will win: Diablo Cody (Juno)

Who I would like to win: Diablo Cody (Juno)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)

Joel Coen & Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) – NBR, NYC, GG, WGA, Scripter

Christopher Hampton (Atonement)

Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) – BAFTA

Sarah Polley (Away from Her)

The Coens’ win for 1996’s Fargo was in the original screenplay category, so their widely-expected win here would complete the set. The only conceivable challenge comes from Ronald Harwood’s bittersweet, heartrending script for TDBATB, which some pointed out was arguably a harder task in adapting for the screen than what the Coens did with Cormac McCarthy’s novel. A major upset in this category occurred in 2002 when The Pianist won this award ahead of the overwhelming favorite, The Hours. The screenwriter for The Pianist? Ronald Harwood.

Will win: Joel Coen & Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)

Who I would like to win: Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)

The 80^th Annual Academy Awards airs February 24^th at 8pm ET on ABC (February 25^th 9am Singapore time on Channel 5), and will be hosted by The Daily Show’s Jon Stewart.